An update for Belgium with lock down date = 2020-03-12.
Note that I added chart "total deaths (limited to 7 days in the future)". This shows the same information as chart "total deaths" but then only limited to 7 days in the future. This new chart allows to see to what extent the selected country/province/state is following the same graph as Hubei (China).
Observations:
- Hubei factor doubled compared to same chart I posted 2 days ago (from 0.130 to 0.269). So there are 3 explanations I could think of for this:
a/ the virus in Belgium was spreading substantially faster before the lock down date compared to Hubei. Especially the spreading to the high risk group (elderly people).
b/ the Belgium measures taken during the lock down data don't have the same positive effect as the measures taken by Hubei.
c/ some of the increase can be caused by the Hubei statistics that might have reported cases on the next day. - Chart "total deaths (limited to 7 days in future)" also clearly shows that Belgium is not following the Hubei curve. This is concerning. So Belgium might get substantially more deaths than the 850 predicted in chart "total deaths".
