Updated charts for Italy with lock down data 2020-03-05
Notes:
- The Hubei data is smoothed (new feature which is documented in README.md)
Observations:
- The Hubei factor has increased a little bit from 6.186 (22 March - 6 days ago) to 6.259 (20,000 deaths)
- It must be noted that in terms of curve fitting (chart
"total deaths (limited to 7 days in future)") a"lock down date"of 2020-03-07 (2 days later) gives a slightly better fit and would give a hubei factor of 8.064 (25,000 deaths) - The new confirmed cases for Italy will go rapidly down from 31 March (or maybe 2 days later) onwards if it is following the Hubei curve.
- The number of deaths for Italy will go rapidly down from 7th April (or maybe 2 days later) onwards if it is following the Hubei curve.
