Todays (2020-03-19) charts for Italy using 5th of March as lock down date (= date when Italy took measures comparable to the lock down of Hubei at 23rd of January 2020).
So you can see the following things:
- In chart "new deaths" (reporting the daily number of deaths): the peak (based on comparison with Hubei) is expected around the end of this Month (still 10 days to go).
- In chart '"total deaths": Italy might expect more than 15000 deaths (5 times more than today).
- The
hubei factor(shown at the top of the chart) of 5.424 means that the situation in Italy in terms of deaths is more than 5 times worse than the situation in Hubei.
Take care that this is just a comparison based on shifting (X-axis) and scaling (Y-axis) of the Historical Hubei data. So this doesn't mean that Italy will follow the same path. But it must be noted that (see chart total deaths) that the path of Italy (using lock down date = 5th of March) so far closely matches the China (Hubei) - shifted and scaled evolution.
