What is the calculation for R? It would be interesting to see comparisons of R across multiple countries.
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The reproduction rate shown in the top middle chart is defined as follows:
R(X) = avg_new_conf(X+7)/avg_new_conf(X)
Where:
R(X) = reproduction rate at date X
avg_new_conf(X) = "7-days-averaged" new confirmed cases at date X
avg_new_conf(X+7) = "7-days-averaged" new confirmed cases at ( date X + 7 days)
avg_new_conf(X) is calculated as
[new_conf(X-3)+ new_conf(X-2) + new_conf(X-1) + ... + new_conf(X+3)] /7
where: new_conf(X) = new confirmed cases at date X.
So an R = 1.5 means that on weekly basis the number of new confirmed cases increases with 50%.
If you or anyone else is interested in any specific country comparisons, I can generate and share the charts. Just react to this post specifying the country comparisons you are interested in.
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My other project is providing an even better estimate for the reproduction rate as it takes the number of tests taken into account. See here for a comparison between UK and Italy.
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comparison Belgium - Netherlands (without scaling).
New observations compared to 4 days ago
- The little rise in reproduction rate for the Netherlands stopped. It is around 0.7 on weekly basis which is good.
- For Belgium the rise in reproduction rate even went above 1 at 3rd of May but quickly dived below 1 in the last days (see also chart "new confirmed cases"). I have no explanation for this short period (from 3rd of May until 10 the of May) where the number of cases didn't decrease. But based on latest data Belgian is again good on track to eradicate the virus.
Comparison Belgium - Germany (not scaled)
Question of today:
- Why does Germany have less deaths than Belgium while it reported more than 3 times the number of confirmed cases ?
Note that this can only partially be explained by the (non-confirmed) deaths counted in eldery homes by Belgium. As in Belgium based on page 19 of siensano report:
- 51% of the deaths are reported in eldery homes (so not in hospital) of which only 24% is confirmed.
- 48% of the deaths are reported in hospital of which 96% is confirmed
So based on this - even if for Belgium we don't count the deaths in Eldery homes and the unconfirmed deaths in Hospital then it would still report 4230 deaths => which means that Germany has 1.9 times more deaths in that case while it has almost 3.2 times more confirmed cases than Belgium. So even in that case the fatality rate for a Belgium confirmed case is 66% higher than for a Germany confirmed case.
So there is another important factor in play. I have no clue what this might be ?
comparison Belgium - Hubei
Main observation:
At peak Hubei reported 2850 new confirmed cases per day.
Only 41 days later Hubei reported 2 new confirmed cases per day.
In other words Hubei reduced the number of cases over a 41 days period with almost a factor 1500 which is much much faster than Belgium and most (if not all) other Western countries.
If Belgium would be as successful as Hubei then we would now report 1 new case per 7 days instead of the 250 new cases per day we are reporting now ! So in absolute numbers this is more than 1500 times worse.
The main reason for this huge difference =
- the lock down measures were more strict and severe in Hubei
- the lock down measures were only released when hardly any new confirmed cases are reported.
- much better contact tracing.
Conclusion
In Belgium (like most countries) the virus will still be present in the population for a considerably long time. The fact that the Belgian path is so different from Hubei (where the virus has been quasi eradicated) is due to the actions they have taken or not taken.
comparison Belgium - Netherlands
Observations
- Belgium and the Netherlands are reporting today about the same number of new confirmed cases per day (note that the Netherlands have a bigger population : 17.3 million - versus 11.5 million for Belgium ) 2. Belgium and the Netherlands have the same infection fatality rate (around 10%). This is high meaning that the number of confirmed cases is only a fraction of the real cases. Assuming a real infection fatality rate of 1.4% (based on New York city) we can derive that the real number of cases would be 7 times a high as the number of confirmed cases.
- The reproduction rate for the Netherlands was around 1 since 20th May but seems to go down again.
- The reproduction rate for Belgium is below 1 (but not much) but is also fluctuating a lot (even went above 1 the 3rd of May).
comparison UK - Italy
Observations
- Italy is going strong: doing much better than the UK.
- The reproduction rate for the UK is flirting with 1, but is going down again.
- Infection fatality rate is around 14% for both countries. Assuming a real infection fatality rate of 1.4% (based on New York) this means that there are 10 times more cases than confirmed.
Comparison Sweden - Belgium
I have compared Sweden with Belgium as Belgium has about same population as Sweden.
Also Sweden is interesting as they were going for Herd Immunity.
Observations
- Reproduction rate for Sweden hangs around 1 for almost 2 months. So they have made no progress in containing the epidemic. The current situation in Sweden is now worse than in Belgium (Belgium = the country after San Marino with most Deaths per 1M population).
- The infection fatality rate for Sweden is similar to Belgium (around 10%).
comparison UK - Italy
Observations
- Italy is doing great for 2 months in a row.
- UK (not as efficient as Italy) is doing also good.
comparison US - Brazil
Observations
- US reproduction rate is around 1 for the last week. So unlike most countries in Europe: in the US the number of cases is not declining but also not increasing. So not really good.
- Situation in Brazil is bad. It is now even worse than the US in absolute number despite a smaller population. Reproduction rate is still above 1 but slowly decreasing.
Comparison Sweden - Belgium
Observations
- Belgium is doing good.
- Sweden's reproduction rate went clearly above 1 in the last days. That is very concerning. Sweden has similar population as Belgium but is reporting 7 times more confirmed cases than Belgium in the last 7 days average.
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